Silver (XAG/USD) is looking for direction at $74.00 on Thursday, after pulling back from Wednesday’s highs at $77.65. The precious metal lost its shine as the market turned cautious with the first cracks emerging in the US-Iran ceasefire deal.

Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hesitates at $74.00 as risk appetite ebbs

<p>Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) notes that interest rate differentials are keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) in a 96.00–100.00 range, even as recent ceasefire optimism faded on compliance doubts. Haddad maintains a structurally bearish US Dollar (USD) view, expecting only one 25 bps Federal Reserve (Fed) cut by year-end as February US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) data are unlikely to alter rate expectations.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">DXY capped by rate differentials</h2><p>"Brent crude oil prices are up 8% after dropping to near a one month low at $90.40 a barrel yesterday. The equity and bond market rally stalled, while the DXY (USD index) rebounded following a test of its 200-day moving average yesterday."</p><p>"Bottom line: interest rate differentials between the US and other major economies still anchors the DXY index within a 96.00-100.00 range. Structurally, we maintain our long-held bearish USD view because of fading confidence in US trade and security policy, worsening US fiscal credibility, and the ongoing politicization of the Fed."</p><p>"Today, the February PCE will capture the pre-shock US inflation and consumer spending backdrop (1:30pm London, 8:30am New York). As such, the data is unlikely to shift the dial on Fed funds rate expectations, which currently implies nearly even odds of a 25bps cut over the next twelve months."</p><p>"Headline PCE is seen at 2.8% y/y for a second straight month, core PCE is expected to dip 0.1pts to 3.0% y/y, and real personal spending is forecast to rise by 0.2% m/m vs. 0.1% in January. For reference, at its March 17-18 meeting, the FOMC’s median 2026 projection for both headline and core PCE stood at 2.7%."</p><p>"The FOMC March 17-18 meeting minutes underscored the two-sided policy risks from a protracted conflict in the Middle East. “Most” participants raised the concern that a lengthy war could warrant additional rate cuts to support the labor market, while “many” would favor rate increases to help bring inflation down to the 2% target. Provided the energy shock continues to fade, we expect the Fed to deliver one 25bps cut by year-end, in line with the FOMC’s projection."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad (BBH) notes that interest rate differentials are keeping the US Dollar Index (DXY) in a 96.00–100.00 range, even as recent ceasefire optimism faded on compliance doubts.

DXY: Range anchored as Fed cut seen – BBH

AUD/JPY extends its winning streak for the fourth successive session, trading around 111.70 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens, with oil prices rebounding amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire.

AUD/JPY remains above 111.50 as higher oil prices weigh on Japanese Yen

<p>Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen highlights that Eurozone inflation has risen with higher energy prices but remains well below 2022 levels. He stresses that strong household savings, low unemployment and ongoing investment in infrastructure and defense should cushion growth. Nonetheless, falling confidence indicators and tighter financial conditions pose downside risks if the conflict escalates.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Inflation rises but growth shock limited</h2><p>"In March, inflation in the eurozone thus came out at 2.5%. This was a significant increase from the month before, when it was at 1.9%, but still far below the level in 2022, when oil prices were even higher than today, and when not least the price of natural gas went completely wild."</p><p>"At that time, it peaked for a short period just under 350 euros per MWh, and the EU had to introduce a maximum price of 180 euros per MWh in almost panic mode. In comparison, the natural gas price in Europe is currently at 'only' about 50 euros per MWh."</p><p>"This is high and hits European companies and households, but not necessarily to an extent that leads to a deep economic downturn or calls for fiscal easing."</p><p>"And certainly not when it is taken into account that household savings are at record highs, unemployment is low, and billions of euros are already being pumped into infrastructure projects and not least defense."</p><p>"But of course there is always a risk that things will go worse than expected, and the economies also risk being hit by developments in the financial markets, where the war has also left its mark in the form of falling stock prices and rising interest rates."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

Nordea’s Group Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen highlights that Eurozone inflation has risen with higher energy prices but remains well below 2022 levels. He stresses that strong household savings, low unemployment and ongoing investment in infrastructure and defense should cushion growth.

Eurozone: Inflation impact from energy shock – Nordea

The Indian Rupee (INR) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) in the opening trade on Thursday. The USD/INR pair rebounds to near 92.85 from the three-week low of 92.20 posted on Wednesday, following the announcement of a ceasefire between the United States (US) and Iran.

USD/INR recovers strongly amid concerns over Iran ceasefire's sustainability

<p>Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz notes that crude Oil’s initial sharp drop on the Iran ceasefire headlines has been only partially reversed, despite renewed tensions and the Strait of Hormuz re-closing. She highlights that a temporarily lower crude level around $94–96/bbl could cushion future price spikes if hostilities resume, suggesting markets may be factoring in a tactical US strategy.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Crude reacts modestly to Hormuz closure</h2><p>"Global macro markets were a little more sensitive to (war) hawkish headlines"</p><p>"But the market that (surprisingly) barely moved yesterday was crude oil. Crude one month futures fell more than $16 to $94/bbl after the news of a ceasefire first broke, but the Strait reclosing and the fragility of the ceasefire exposed resulted in minimal price action, with crude closing at around $96/bbl."</p><p>"A ceasefire announcement that is well-received by the market could soothe markets and inflationary expectations, as well as depress the price of oil—which it has done for the time being. Should the Trump Administration choose to ramp up offensive measures in two weeks (or even today), it’s possible that the jump in prices may be somewhat mitigated, as we’re bouncing off of a “suppressed” crude level of $94/bbl, as opposed to the $110/bbl level we were at earlier in the week."</p><p>"While the moving parts here are extremely complex and there is likely much more at play here than just “because markets,” the markets angle is still something to think about."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

Rabobank strategist Molly Schwartz notes that crude Oil’s initial sharp drop on the Iran ceasefire headlines has been only partially reversed, despite renewed tensions and the Strait of Hormuz re-closing.

Oil: Ceasefire fragility tempers price reaction – Rabobank

BTC/USD – Upside continuation in the play [Video]

<p>ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% for an extended period, with markets already pricing out most further tightening. While EUR/PLN has erased about half its conflict‑related rise, ING sees further Polish Zloty (PLN) gains if risk sentiment holds and the US‑Iran ceasefire continues, though a return to pre‑conflict levels below 4.220 will likely be slower.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Stable rates and geopolitics guide Zloty</h2><p>"The National Bank of Poland is likely to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% today. This is a meeting without a new forecast and the first meeting after the March rate cut. Some MPC [Monetary Policy Committee] members indicated before the meeting that rates will likely remain unchanged for a longer period of time and some mentioned that the March cut was the last. Attention will be on the Governor's press conference today, which will likely determine the central bank's further direction."</p><p>"The market has priced out about one and a half rate hikes after the US-Iran ceasefire announcement and remains priced at less than 20bp at the one-year horizon. This is the lowest in the CEE region and rates pricing is quickly returning to normal. </p><p>If the central bank confirms its tendency to wait longer and do nothing today and, at the same time, the geopolitical situation stabilises further, we should see some pressure on the remaining rate hike pricing, although the market will probably keep some optionality here. </p><p>On the other hand, the government has aggressively entered the fuel market, which should keep inflation under control and stay roughly within the central bank's tolerance band. Our forecast is for rates to remain unchanged for an extended period."</p><p>"EUR/PLN saw its biggest one-day fall in a year yesterday, erasing roughly half of the move up from pre-conflict levels. Still, EUR/PLN and the rest of the region are mainly driven by geopolitical headlines, and today's NBP meeting will have little impact. However, assuming that the risk-on sentiment continues and the US-Iran ceasefire holds, the zloty has further potential to erase previous losses, although reaching pre-conflict levels below 4.220 will take longer."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

ING’s Frantisek Taborsky expects the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to keep rates at 3.75% for an extended period, with markets already pricing out most further tightening.

EUR/PLN: Zloty recovery with steady NBP – ING

The Pound Sterling edges lower against its major currency peers on Thursday, trading subduedly around 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session.

Pound Sterling ticks lower as investors worry sustainability of Iran ceasefire

<p>Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke says weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation does not give the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank a reason to change its stance. The bank already projects inflation below target and is likely to look through temporary downside surprises, given offsetting Oil price risks. She adds that the Swedish Krona (SEK) will remain driven mainly by global risk sentiment rather than shifting rate expectations for now.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Soft inflation but policy unchanged</h2><p>"The preliminary Swedish consumer price index data for March came in below expectations, falling to 1.6% year-on-year (expected: 2.2%) and to 1.1% for core inflation (expected: 1.5%) – partly due to base effects and the appreciation of the krona last year."</p><p>"In its forecasts, the Riksbank anticipates a decline well below the target for both rates anyway, even if March is still a little too early for that."</p><p>"And even if concerns were to arise that the decline in inflation rates might be too rapid and too sharp compared to their own forecasts (partly due to the planned VAT cut next month), the risk of rising prices caused by the oil price shock is likely to counteract these concerns."</p><p>"The Riksbank can therefore, for the time being, look forward to the expected price rises resulting from the oil price shock with confidence, but will of course remain vigilant – as emphasised at its March meeting – depending on how the conflict ultimately unfolds following the ceasefire."</p><p>"Therefore, in my opinion, there is no reason to expect a change in the Riksbank’s stance for the time being."</p><p>"The Swedish krona remains, for the time being, at the mercy of market risk aversion, as demonstrated by the reaction following the announcement of the ceasefire with Iran; interest rate expectations currently play a (still) subordinate role."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

Commerzbank analyst Antje Praefcke says weaker-than-expected Swedish inflation does not give the central bank of Sweden, Riksbank a reason to change its stance.

SEK: Riksbank seen steady despite soft CPI – Commerzbank

Gold (XAU/USD) extends the sideways consolidative price move through the first half of the European session on Thursday, though it manages to hold above the $4,700 mark and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's slide from a three-week high.

Gold extends the range play above $4,700 as traders look to US data for fresh impetus

The US Dollar (USD) has trimmed some losses to consolidate right above the 99.00 level on Thursday, after bouncing from lows at 98.50 on Wednesday. The safe-haven US Dollar has picked up as investors come to terms with the fragility of the ceasefire in Iran.

US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up to 99.00 with Iran’s ceasefire into question 

Dow Jones futures fall 0.36% to near 47,950 during European hours on Thursday, ahead of the regular opening in the United States (US). Meanwhile, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also lose 0.38% and 0.37% to near 6,800 and 25,000, respectively, at the time of writing.

Dow Jones futures slip due to fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism

<p>BNY Strategist Geoff Yu notes that EUR flows have flipped from a pre-conflict ‘hedge the Dollar’ theme to a net underheld position. With Eurozone stagflation concerns contrasting Norway’s positive terms-of-trade shock, he argues that EUR is now more sensitive to any improvement in sentiment, while Norwegian Krone (NOK) strength could stall if energy prices peak and Norges Bank resumes FX purchases.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Euro underheld as NOK remains crowded</h2><p>"Assuming the ceasefire holds over the next two weeks, the “easiest” FX flows to realize would be mean reversion of the “extreme” moves since the beginning of the conflict. On the outflow side, emerging market currencies facing balance of payments stress and developed market currencies exposed to stagflation were hit hardest. At the other end, energy- and commodity-linked currencies with clear policy space were bid."</p><p>"The EUR and NOK currently occupy both ends of the spectrum and perfectly encapsulate this view: the Eurozone is seen as struggling with stagflation as energy costs bite, while Norway will see a strongly positive terms-of-trade shock, and Norges Bank has largely pre-committed to a hike – the only developed central bank in Europe to do so."</p><p>"The EUR remains the most affected by the unwind of the ‘hedge the dollar’ theme exhibited before the conflict. The process is now fully complete, to the extent that the EUR is now net underheld on an aggregate basis."</p><p>"From a domestic asset allocation perspective, given the year-to-date performance of U.S. equities remains manageable, we can only surmise that forward buying of EUR for hedging purposes has been taken off in size – which is striking given rate expectations have moved in a direction which would normally necessitate the opposite behavior. Regardless, now that the EUR is net underheld, the bar for reversing flows is now much lower."</p><p>"In contrast, NOK’s gains may halt for now if energy prices peak. Even if energy prices remain elevated, we believe receipts will be large enough to meet government financing requirements such that the Norges Bank may shift toward FX purchases again, representing an additional layer of resistance against positive NOK flows, and NOK holdings remain by far the strongest among European currencies."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

BNY Strategist Geoff Yu notes that EUR flows have flipped from a pre-conflict ‘hedge the Dollar’ theme to a net underheld position.

Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hesitates at $74.00 as risk appetite ebbs

DXY: Range anchored as Fed cut seen – BBH

AUD/JPY remains above 111.50 as higher oil prices weigh on Japanese Yen

Eurozone: Inflation impact from energy shock – Nordea

USD/INR recovers strongly amid concerns over Iran ceasefire's sustainability

Oil: Ceasefire fragility tempers price reaction – Rabobank

Latest News

BTC/USD – Upside continuation in the play [Video]

EUR/PLN: Zloty recovery with steady NBP – ING

Pound Sterling ticks lower as investors worry sustainability of Iran ceasefire

SEK: Riksbank seen steady despite soft CPI – Commerzbank

Gold extends the range play above $4,700 as traders look to US data for fresh impetus

US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up to 99.00 with Iran’s ceasefire into question

Dow Jones futures slip due to fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism

EUR/NOK: Norges Bank risk for Krone – BNY

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Silver Price Forecasts: XAG/USD hesitates at $74.00 as risk appetite ebbs

DXY: Range anchored as Fed cut seen – BBH

AUD/JPY remains above 111.50 as higher oil prices weigh on Japanese Yen

Eurozone: Inflation impact from energy shock – Nordea

USD/INR recovers strongly amid concerns over Iran ceasefire's sustainability

Oil: Ceasefire fragility tempers price reaction – Rabobank

Latest News

BTC/USD – Upside continuation in the play [Video]

EUR/PLN: Zloty recovery with steady NBP – ING

Pound Sterling ticks lower as investors worry sustainability of Iran ceasefire

SEK: Riksbank seen steady despite soft CPI – Commerzbank

Gold extends the range play above $4,700 as traders look to US data for fresh impetus

US Dollar Index (DXY) picks up to 99.00 with Iran’s ceasefire into question

Dow Jones futures slip due to fading US-Iran ceasefire optimism

EUR/NOK: Norges Bank risk for Krone – BNY

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Forex Regulators

Forex Glossary

Stay Ahead of the Markets

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