<p>Bitcoin rose 2.66% to around $75,800 on Monday after Strategy disclosed a $2.54 billion purchase, the company’s third biggest ever, and equivalent to about 2.5 months of new BTC supply.</p><p>However, several indicators suggest the rally may fizzle out.</p><figure><img src="https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/BTC-1776768172662-1776768172663.png" alt="Chart" loading="lazy" width="2770" height="1674"><figcaption>BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView</figcaption></figure><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Key takeaways</h2><ul><li value="1">Poor macro conditions can spark BTC price pullback if Strategy’s buying slows.</li><li value="2">Bitcoin’s technical setup hints at a potential dip toward $67,000–$69,000.</li></ul><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Strategy may halt BTC purchases this week</h2><p>Strategy funded most of its latest 34,164 BTC purchase through its preferred stock, Stretch (STRC), which generated over $2.17 billion through at-the-market share sales between April 13 and April 19.</p><figure><img src="https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/Chart-1776768142479-1776768142481.jpeg" alt="Chart" loading="lazy" width="1656" height="824"><figcaption>Source: Strategy’s SEC Filings</figcaption></figure><p>That accounted for roughly 86% of the total amount spent, while sales of its Class A common stock, MSTR, added another $366 million.</p><p>STRC lets Strategy raise cash for Bitcoin when it trades at or above $100. Stronger prices mean easier fundraising and more BTC buying. In 2026, STRC enabled the purchases of 77,000 BTC, ten times more than all the ETFs combined, per River data.</p><figure><img src="https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/YTD-1776768242548-1776768242550.png" alt="YTD" loading="lazy" width="2560" height="1440"><figcaption>Bitcoin ownership YTD change. Source: River</figcaption></figure><p>But STRC has been trading below its $100 par value since April 15, which may limit Strategy’s ability to keep raising cash to purchase more Bitcoin this week.</p><figure><img src="https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/STRC-1776768296865-1776768296866.png" alt="Chart" loading="lazy" width="2236" height="1200"><figcaption>STRC weekly estimates. Source: STRC.LIVE</figcaption></figure><p>In past episodes, pauses in Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases have coincided with BTC price slumps.</p><p>For instance, on average, BTC’s price has dipped by roughly 30% when STRC traded below its $100 par value.</p><figure><img src="https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/btcusd-1776768348373-1776768348374.png" alt="Chart" loading="lazy" width="2770" height="1674"><figcaption>BTC/USD vs. STRC daily performance chart. Source: TradingView</figcaption></figure><p>A 30% dip will take Bitcoin’s price to $53,000 when measured from current levels.</p><p>The halt appears alongside weakening risk sentiment, with US stock indexes falling amid doubts over the US–Iran peace deal.</p><figure><img src="https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/SP-1776768408134-1776768408135.png" alt="Chart" loading="lazy" width="2770" height="1674"><figcaption>Nasdaq, S&amp;P 500, and Dow Jones daily performance charts. Source: TradingView</figcaption></figure><p>US President Donald Trump said it was “highly unlikely” he would extend the two-week truce if no agreement is reached before it expires on Wednesday.</p><p>Any signs of an extended Middle East conflict may weigh on BTC’s prices.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">BTC flag pullback hints at $67,000–$69,000</h2><p>Bitcoin’s current chart structure shows classic flag consolidation, with price now drifting toward the pattern’s lower boundary. This setup raises the risk of a pullback toward the $67,000–$69,000 region in April, if support gives way.</p><figure><img src="https://editorial.fxsstatic.com/miscelaneous/btc1-1776768455916-1776768455917.png" alt="Chart" loading="lazy" width="2770" height="1674"><figcaption>BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView</figcaption></figure><p>At the same time, downside may remain limited as the 20-day (green) and 50-day (red) EMAs continue to act as dynamic support levels. Holding above these averages would signal underlying demand, increasing the chances of a rebound.</p><p>If that happens, BTC could attempt a breakout above the flag’s upper trend line, effectively invalidating the bearish setup.</p><p>Such a move would open the door for a recovery toward the 200-day EMA (blue), currently near $82,750.</p><p>As Cointelegraph reported, breaking the resistance near $78,000 is now a top priority for the bulls.</p>

Bitcoin rose 2.66% to around $75,800 on Monday after Strategy disclosed a $2.54 billion purchase, the company’s third biggest ever, and equivalent to about 2.5 months of new BTC supply.

Bitcoin risks losing $70K as strategy's STRC slips below $100

Bitcoin (BTC) trades in green above $76,000 on Tuesday after gaining nearly 3% in the previous day. The bullish price action is further supported by rising institutional and corporate demand.

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC climbs above $76,000 as ETF inflows, Strategy buying offset US-Iran uncertainty

The US Dollar (USD) shows marginal gains against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Tuesday, trimming losses after a six-day selloff. The USD/CAD pair has reached session highs right above 1.3660 but remains relatively close to the five-week lows of 1.3635 set the previous day.  

USD/CAD edges up to 1.3660 with Iran, Fed's Warsh on focus

<p>Commerzbank’s Christoph Rieger highlights Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing as a key event for US rates, with potential for far-reaching changes to Federal Reserve balance sheet operations. He expects the proposals to be technically complex but impactful across the yield curve, money markets, cross-currency funding and swap spreads. Banks are seen as likely beneficiaries if they assume more Fed-like functions.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Warsh agenda could reshape US rates</h2><p>"More relevant could be Kevin Warsh's confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. A formal vote is not expected as the Republican Senator Tillis has not given up his opposition, which means the Committee is short one vote for advancing the nomination to the Senate floor."</p><p>"Tillis is unlikely to drop his veto before the DoJ charges against Powell are resolved. However, after today's hearing the committee could move immediately to a vote when the DoJ issue is resolved, keeping chances alive for Warsh to be sworn in before Powell's term expires on 15 May."</p><p>"In terms of content, the hearing could add colour to the profound fundamental changes Warsh wants to implement as Fed chair. As argued in last week's AotC, the proposals may sound technical, but they can have far-reaching consequences for various actors and market segments."</p><p>"The yield curve should steepen."</p><p>"In money markets, the measures should allow more repo volatility and generally higher market rates relative to the administered rates."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

Commerzbank’s Christoph Rieger highlights Kevin Warsh’s confirmation hearing as a key event for US rates, with potential for far-reaching changes to Federal Reserve balance sheet operations.

Fed: Warsh plans seen curve-steepening – Commerzbank

The Euro (EUR) extends losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, reaching session lows a few pips above 1.1750 at the time of writing after failing to extend Monday’s gains past 1.1790.

EUR/USD hits lows near 1.1750 amid grim Eurozone economic sentiment data

<p>TD Securities’ James Rossiter notes that Oil prices are stabilizing slightly above $90 per barrel, with Brent trading in a $90–100 range since the ceasefire began. He highlights that market participants appear comfortable with Oil around current levels, while uncertainty over Middle East developments and the Strait of Hormuz remains a key focus for traders.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Brent holds in $90–100 range</h2><p>"Our base case assumption for oil prices to sit slightly above $90/bbl appears to be playing out for now."</p><p>"Indeed, the dynamics of the tensions appears to suggest a certain degree of comfort around—but not much above—this level."</p><p>"Brent oil prices have remained range-bound between $90-100/bbl since the ceasefire began."</p><p>"Whether the Strait of Hormuz remains open or closed (or seemingly both at once) remains a key focus."</p><p>"Markets seem to be converging on the view that energy prices will settle near their current levels."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

TD Securities’ James Rossiter notes that Oil prices are stabilizing slightly above $90 per barrel, with Brent trading in a $90–100 range since the ceasefire began.

Oil: Range-bound prices hold near $90 – TD Securities

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading at $85.75 per barrel at the time of writing on Tuesday, practically flat on the daily chart, after having pulled back from Monday’s highs at $88.50.

WTI Oil drifts below $86 with all eyes on the US-Iran peace talks

<p>ING’s Chris Turner highlights strong foreign demand for Eurozone assets, with EUR280bn of equities and debt bought in the first two months of the year, which may be marginally supportive for the Euro (EUR). He notes that markets largely rule out an April European Central Bank (ECB) hike but price a June move, which ING also expects. Turner adds that EUR/USD trades in a tight range but could rise if Kevin Warsh sounds dovish.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Foreign demand and ECB expectations</h2><p>"Last week's Balance of Payments figures released by the ECB showed continued strong foreign buying of eurozone asset markets in February."</p><p>"So while US TIC data does not show any outright sales of US long-term assets, the strong demand for eurozone assets suggests that, at the margin, the euro could be benefiting from new funds being put to work."</p><p>"The market now sees very little chance of an ECB hike later this month but a 68% chance of a hike in June."</p><p>"We expect the ECB to deliver a June hike to impress its inflation-fighting credibility on markets."</p><p>"EUR/USD is trading in a tight 1.1750-1.1800 range, but could move to 1.1850 if Kevin Warsh says something dovish."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

ING’s Chris Turner highlights strong foreign demand for Eurozone assets, with EUR280bn of equities and debt bought in the first two months of the year, which may be marginally supportive for the Euro (EUR).

EUR/USD: Foreign inflows support upside potential – ING

The AUD/USD pair trades 0.35% lower around 0.7150 during the European trading session on Tuesday.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Corrects to near 0.7150 in countdown to Warsh’s confirmation hearing

EUR/JPY remains steady after modest gains registered in the previous day, trading around 187.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross holds ground as the Euro (EUR) moves little following the release of German ZEW Survey data.

EUR/JPY steadies above 187.00 following German ZEW Survey data

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends Monday's losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday.

USD/INR gains as RBI rolls back INR-supportive measures, Warsh's testimony awaited

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment deteriorates significantly to -17.2 in April. Economists already anticipated the sentiment data to come in lower at -5 from -0.5 in March.

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment deteriorates significantly to -17.2 in April

<p>Nomura analysts note that the fall in the United Kingdom (UK) unemployment rate to 4.9% hides underlying labour market weakness. Softer payrolls, vacancies and wage growth, alongside policymakers’ resistance to rate-hike pricing, lead Nomura to expect the Bank of England (BoE) to keep Bank Rate unchanged on 30 April.</p><h2 class="fxs_headline_from_medium_to_large">Headline strength hides softer undercurrents</h2><p>"The big surprise in today’s UK labour market data was the fall in the unemployment rate to 4.9% in the three months to February (i.e. prior to the Iran war). However, this positive surprise masks a weaker story as employment growth in the LFS survey actually slowed below our expectations to a quarterly rise of 24k, below our forecast of 60k. The fall in the headline unemployment rate was therefore driven by a rise in the inactivity rate to 21.0% from 20.7% previously."</p><p>"Other labour market indicators published this morning were mostly weaker than we expected. Payrolls for March (i.e. after the Iran war started) fell by 11k (we expected no change) and the February rise in payrolls was revised to a 6k fall. Vacancies data also disappointed with a 29k fall on the quarter to the lowest number of vacancies since early 2021."</p><p>"On wages, private sector regular pay growth was also a little lower than we expected at 0.1% m-o-m in February. The PAYE measure of wage growth also slowed to 0.1% m-o-m in March, suggesting the official measure is unlikely to pick up again in the next release (though these two measures don’t always have a good correlation)."</p><p>"The labour market is a lagging indicator, so even in the data we have for March in this report, we would not expect the impact of the Iran war to show clearly for some time. Yet, it does tell us about the strength of the jobs market prior to the war. The Bank of England was forecasting an unemployment rate of 5.2% for Q1 2026, which would now require a March single-month unemployment rate of around 6.2%. However, the weaker details beneath the headline improvement and recent speeches from policymakers pushing back against market pricing for rate hikes this year mean that we continue to expect the MPC to vote to leave rates unchanged on 30 April."</p><p><em>(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)</em></p>

Nomura analysts note that the fall in the United Kingdom (UK) unemployment rate to 4.9% hides underlying labour market weakness.

GBP: Weaker labour details support steady BoE – Nomura

Kevin Warsh, United States (US) President Donald Trump's nominee to replace Jerome Powell as the next chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed),  will testify before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday.

Bitcoin risks losing $70K as strategy's STRC slips below $100

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC climbs above $76,000 as ETF inflows, Strategy buying offset US-Iran uncertainty

USD/CAD edges up to 1.3660 with Iran, Fed's Warsh on focus

Fed: Warsh plans seen curve-steepening – Commerzbank

EUR/USD hits lows near 1.1750 amid grim Eurozone economic sentiment data

Oil: Range-bound prices hold near $90 – TD Securities

Latest News

WTI Oil drifts below $86 with all eyes on the US-Iran peace talks

EUR/USD: Foreign inflows support upside potential – ING

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Corrects to near 0.7150 in countdown to Warsh’s confirmation hearing

EUR/JPY steadies above 187.00 following German ZEW Survey data

USD/INR gains as RBI rolls back INR-supportive measures, Warsh's testimony awaited

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment deteriorates significantly to -17.2 in April

GBP: Weaker labour details support steady BoE – Nomura

Fed Chair nominee Warsh to reiterate importance of independence

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Bitcoin risks losing $70K as strategy's STRC slips below $100

Bitcoin Price Forecast: BTC climbs above $76,000 as ETF inflows, Strategy buying offset US-Iran uncertainty

USD/CAD edges up to 1.3660 with Iran, Fed's Warsh on focus

Fed: Warsh plans seen curve-steepening – Commerzbank

EUR/USD hits lows near 1.1750 amid grim Eurozone economic sentiment data

Oil: Range-bound prices hold near $90 – TD Securities

Latest News

WTI Oil drifts below $86 with all eyes on the US-Iran peace talks

EUR/USD: Foreign inflows support upside potential – ING

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Corrects to near 0.7150 in countdown to Warsh’s confirmation hearing

EUR/JPY steadies above 187.00 following German ZEW Survey data

USD/INR gains as RBI rolls back INR-supportive measures, Warsh's testimony awaited

German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment deteriorates significantly to -17.2 in April

GBP: Weaker labour details support steady BoE – Nomura

Fed Chair nominee Warsh to reiterate importance of independence

Forex Tools

Economic Calendar

Exchange Hours

Forex Regulators

Forex Glossary

Stay Ahead of the Markets

Daily Market Brief

Follow Us